Showing posts with label housing market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing market. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

November 2014 Real Estate Update

The upcoming holidays didn’t appear to distract Northern California home shoppers in November, as the months’ supply of inventory (MSI) declined or held steady from October in almost every one of Pacific Union’s regions. In fact, the MSI reached or tied yearly lows in the East Bay, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Sonoma County, and Sonoma Valley, as well as in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Wine Country real estate remained a hot commodity, with the November median sales price climbing to an annual high in Napa County and Sonoma Valley. Single-family home prices in the Tahoe/Truckee region also hit one-year highs, as buyers clamored to purchase a property before the ski season kicks off.

Click on the image accompanying each of our regions below for an expanded look at local real estate activity in November.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

The median sales price for a single-family home in our Contra Costa County region was up slightly from the previous month and closed November at just above $1 million. Buyers paid an average of 99 percent of original prices, also a tiny increase from October.PowerPoint Presentation
At 1.5, the MSI was identical to levels observed since the early summer, with the exception of a brief uptick in September. Contra Costa homebuyers took an average of 31 days to purchase a home, the longest amount of time since the beginning of 2014.
Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.

EAST BAY

Most individual Bay Area housing markets remain heavily tilted in favor of sellers, but the East Bay is arguably the most skewed. In November, the MSI dipped to 0.7 – a yearly low – and sellers took home an average of 12 percent over asking price, the highest premium in any of Pacific Union’s Northern California regions. PowerPoint Presentation
The median sales did relax a smidgen from the previous month, dipping to $826,000. Buyers took an average of 20 days to close a sale, consistent with general patterns observed since April.
Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.

MARIN COUNTY

After dipping into the six-figure range in October, the median sales price in Marin County climbed back above $1 million in November. The MSI went in the opposite direction, falling to 1.6, though the month-over-month change was not dramatic.PowerPoint Presentation
Homes took an average of 59 days to sell, very close to numbers recorded one year earlier. Sellers received an average of 96 percent of asking price, a bit less than in the preceding few months.
Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.

NAPA COUNTY

Home prices in Napa County have risen in odd-numbered months and fallen in even-numbered months all year, and this trend continued in November, with the median sales price increasing to $610,000, a yearly high. At 3.7, the MSI was unchanged from the previous month.PowerPoint Presentation
Napa homebuyers took an average of 81 days to finalize a sale – about a week quicker than in October – and paid an average of 95.1 percent of original price, the most since the early summer.
Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

SAN FRANCISCO – SINGLE-FAMILY HOMESPowerPoint Presentation

November single-family home sales data in San Francisco was fairly similar to October: the MSI held steady at a low 1.1, and the average home took just about a month to leave the market.
The median sales price in the city was above $1 million for the eighth month this year and closed November at $1.16 million. Continuing a pattern that has persisted throughout 2014, the average successful buyer could expect to pay a premium for a single-family home in San Francisco, this time by about 7 percent.

SAN FRANCISCO – CONDOMINIUMSPowerPoint Presentation

For the third time this year, the median sales price for a San Francisco condominium in November was north of the $1 million mark: $1.03 million to be precise. Condominium shoppers in the city also shelled out 6 percent more than original price, nearly identical to numbers recorded in October.
Unlike in most other part of the Bay Area, San Francisco condominium inventory grew month over month, with the MSI inching up to 1.6. Properties sold in an average of 37 days, almost exactly the same amount of time as in October.

SILICON VALLEY

Pacific Union’s Silicon Valley region remains our region’s most expensive place to purchase a home, with the median sales price at exactly $2.5 million in November. Silicon Valley homebuyers have been paying more than asking price all year, and sellers received average premiums of 3.5 percent last month.PowerPoint Presentation
Buyers scooped up properties in an average of 28 days, a few days longer than in October. At 1.1, the MSI was unchanged from the previous month and remains at a one-year low.
Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in these communities.
Mid-Peninsula Subregion
At $1.36 million, November’s median sales price in our Mid-Peninsula subregion stayed in the same general range as it has been since the midsummer. The MSI inched up to 1.0 in November but was still very close to its 2014 low.PowerPoint Presentation
Homes left the market in an average of 25 days, nearly identical to levels recorded one year ago. Buyers paid just about 1 percent more than asking price on average, just as they did in October.
Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes in these communities.

SONOMA COUNTY

The median property sales price in Sonoma County has been gradually relaxing for the past couple of months and drifted down to $480,500 in November. Buyers continue to enjoy slight discounts and paid an average of 95.4 percent of original price.PowerPoint Presentation
For the first time in more than a year, the MSI in Sonoma County dipped below 2.0, finishing November at 1.8. Properties sold in an average of 73 days, giving buyers a few extra days than they had in September and October.
Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

SONOMA VALLEY

Pacific Union’s Sonoma Valley region saw the median sales price soar to $750,000 in November, a robust year-over-year increase of 50 percent. The MSI in the region has been declining since August and reached a one-year low of 1.8.PowerPoint Presentation
Homebuyers still managed to avoid paying full price, with the average property fetching 93.5 percent of original price. Homes stayed on the market for an average of 77 days, shorter than either of the preceding two months.
Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the adjoining chart refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

TAHOE/TRUCKEE – SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

The median sales price for a single-family home in the Tahoe/Truckee region saw big year-over-year growth in November, rising to $740,000, an annual gain of 32 percent. Inventory the region has been steadily dropping since the summer in anticipation of the ski season, and November’s MSI of 4.5 represents a yearly low.PowerPoint Presentation
Still, buyers were in no rush to close a purchase, with the average single-family home in the region taking more than four months to sell. On average, buyers paid about 90 percent of original price, less than they have at any point since the spring.
Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes single-family homes in these communities.

TAHOE/TRUCKEE – CONDOMINIUMS

There are still plenty of available condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region, with the MSI unchanged from October at 6.1. November’s $385,000 median sales price was down about $30,000 from the previous month.PowerPoint Presentation
Buyers paid an average of 87 percent of asking prices, the biggest discounts we’ve observed in the past year. Condominiums in the region left the market in 106 days, the quickest pace of sales since the late summer.
Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the adjoining chart includes condominiums in these communities.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Low Mortgage Rates Linger Longer Than Expected

Illustration of a house made of hundred-dollar billsGood news for homebuyers: Interest rates for home loans continue to linger at historically low levels, extending a rare opportunity to get a mortgage at rates that can shave hundreds of thousands of dollars off payments over the life of the loan.
Bankers and economists last year had forecast mortgage rates to climb higher in 2014 and top 5 percent by the end of the year. But the reverse happened, and rates today on a 30-year mortgage are nearly one-half of a percentage point lower than where they stood a year earlier.
Today’s low rates give another chance at homeownership to Bay Area residents who were outbid on properties during the frenzied real estate scene of 2013 and early 2014.
Since then, the number of all-cash investors has dropped significantly and the supply of homes on the market has gradually expanded — both signaling new opportunities, especially for first-time buyers.
Freddie Mac reported late last week that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.12 percent, down from 4.57 percent last year at this time, and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.26 percent, down from 3.59 percent one year ago.
Surprisingly, mortgage rates aren’t too much higher than when they fell to a record low of 3.31 percent in November 2012. By comparison, mortgage rates averaged 7 to 9 percent in the 1990s and 10 percent in the ’80s.
Last year, Pacific Union explained how rising mortgage rates can add hundreds of thousands of dollars to total house payments over the life of a loan.
Even with increasing home prices, buyers who take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates can still find a bargain. But it’s a wise move to act fast. How long these low rates will linger is a question that even bankers and economists cannot reliably answer.



(Image: Flickr/401(K) 2012)

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Three Reasons Why This Housing Cycle Is Not a Bubble

Bay Area real estate values, fundamentals, and “noise” continue to be hot topics at social gatherings and client meetings. Does this cycle resemble the dot-com era bubble? Can the pace and valuations we are seeing continue?housingbubble
While supply and demand are very basic and scalable market dynamics, I do believe it is important to separate the pace of sales from valuations.
In terms of sales volume, the market’s current pace still displays somewhat of a “slingshot” effect from constrained demand as a result of the 2008 equities-market meltdown. Buyers sought safety on the sidelines for three or four years, but in the last 24 months, demand has been ferocious.
Although we anticipate Bay Area sales volume will experience year-over-year growth of less than 5 percent by 2016 and 2017, slowing demand will not relax pricing.
The following three fundamentals are currently driving Bay Area real estate markets:
1. Supply constraints: Our region has limited land available for new housing development.
2. Exceptional job growth: Northern California enjoys the hottest employment market in the U.S., with intellectually challenging, highly sought-after, and lucrative jobs.
3. Population growth: The chart below illustrates that population growth across our nine-county region has exceeded new housing supply by an average of nearly 200 percent in four years.

Mark_Letter_Q2_Chart

Each of the market dynamics listed above generally has very positive impacts on residential real estate. I doubt there is another major U.S. market that is experiencing and enjoying the combination of all three of these factors.
On a global stage, the Bay Area trails New York City, London, Hong Kong, and Beijing on a dollar-per-square-foot valuation perspective. Over the next five years, look for our region’s real estate prices to meet the aforementioned international markets.
A few years ago I attended a Bay Area real estate conference where Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, spoke. When asked about the best time to invest in California real estate, Leslie replied, “I’ve been answering that question for 30 years, and my answer has always been ‘five years ago.’”
If I am not mistaken, Warren Buffet said, “Buy all the real estate you can,” in a 2009 television interview. I suspect we will all feel the same way in 2019 when we look back at today’s market.
- Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union


 (Photo: Flickr/David Rodriguez Martin)

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Bay Area Home Sales Inch Higher in June

Bay Area home sales inched higher in June while price hikes slowed, according to newly released data from research firm DataQuick – more evidence that our local real estate markets are moving beyond the frenzied activity of the past two years and settling into more normal patterns of steady growth.
View of toy housesDataQuick’s numbers, released Wednesday, line up data found in the June homes sales report from the California Association of Realtors.

DataQuick reported that 7,915 single-family homes and condominiums sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month, up just 0.2 percent on both a month-over-month and annual basis.

June sales were “well below long-term norms,” the firm said in a statement. “Potential buyers are still struggling with a limited supply of homes for sale, prices near or at new peaks, and a still-constricted mortgage environment.”

San Francisco saw the greatest year-over-year increase in June sales volume, up 6.4 percent, followed closely by Napa County, up 6.3 percent.

Sales rose 4.8 percent in San Mateo County from June 2013, 3.9 percent in Solano County, 2.9 percent in Marin County, and 2.7 percent in Contra Costa County. Home sales slipped 2.6 percent in Santa Clara County, 3.3 percent in Sonoma County, and 3.6 percent in Alameda County.

June’s median sales price across the Bay Area was $618,000, up 0.2 percent from May and 11.4 percent from June 2013, the smallest year-over-year increase in 22 months. Last June, the median price was up 33.1 percent from a year earlier.

San Mateo County saw the biggest annual increase in median sales price, with a 14.9 percent gain, followed by Solano County (14.5 percent), San Francisco (13.3 percent), Santa Clara County (12.7 percent), and Contra Costa County (11.1 percent). The median rose 9.3 percent in Alameda County, 9 percent in Sonoma County, 5.7 percent in Marin County, and 5.5 percent in Napa County.

The Bay Area’s median sale price is close on the heels of its all-time high as measured by DataQuick: $665,000, set in June and July 2007. The median then dropped to a low of $290,000 in March 2009.



(Image: Flickr/Woodleywonderworks)

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Bay Area Still Best in U.S. for Job Satisfaction

thumbs_upA few months back we noted that San Jose and San Francisco ranked as the top two U.S. regions where residents were happiest with their lives. So it comes as little surprise that Bay Area employees are also the most satisfied in the country, an intangible that will surely help our region continue to attract highly skilled workers and drive fierce demand for housing.

Glassdoor’s annual Employment Satisfaction Report Card ranked San Jose as No. 1 in the U.S. for worker happiness, followed by San Francisco at No. 2. Both regions also topped 2013′s report in the same order.

The study, which measures employee contentedness on a scale from zero to five, gave San Jose an overall satisfaction rating of 3.5, up slightly from last year’s study. San Francisco received a rating of 3.4, unchanged from 2013.

San Jose also finished first in the compensation and benefits category and was the only U.S. region to notch a 3.5 in that department.

San Francisco employees were among the country’s most optimistic about the economy. Forty-eight percent of the city’s workforce believes that the economy will improve in the next six months, the third highest rate in the nation.

The number of companies hiring in both San Jose and San Francisco grew by 19 percent on an annual basis, when compared with figures from last year’s report. Software engineers are currently the most in-demand employees in both regions, underscoring the Bay Area economy’s reliance on the tech sector.

Indeed, Bay Area high-tech heavyweights fill five of the top 10 slots in Glassdoor’s Employees’ Choice Awards 2014, which rank companies based on employee-satisfaction rates. San Francisco-based Twitter came in at No. 2, while Mountain View’s LinkedIn placed third. Silicon Valley-based companies Facebook, Google, and Guidewire also cracked the top 10.

And while hefty salaries certainly don’t guarantee employee happiness, it’s difficult to dismiss the impact wages have on worker satisfaction, particularly in high-cost regions of the U.S. like the Bay Area.

California Employment Development Department data shows that the mean wages in our local regions are the highest of any metropolitan statistical area in the state. In the first quarter of 2013, San Jose area residents earned an annual mean wage of $70,502, the most in California. The San Francisco area had California’s second highest median wage — $66,858 – followed by Oakland at $59,886.

But salaries aren’t the only factor likely influencing job satisfaction here in the Bay Area. A March SFGate article details the kinds of perks some local tech startups offer employees, including unlimited vacation time, free house cleanings, and subsidized meals.


(Image: Flickr/Sarah Reid)